Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin reclaimed $76,000 after the Fed’s rate pause, eyeing a 13% gain by the end of April.
- Volatility triggered $266 million in long liquidations, though OKX SG reports $3.7 billion in ETF inflows.
- Youhodler analysts warn bitcoin could drop below $70,000 if historical Fed leadership patterns repeat.
Intraday Volatility and Market Liquidations
After logging marginal declines for three consecutive days, bitcoin reversed its trend and registered its first gain of a short working week. Data shows that after briefly dipping to $75,000 yesterday afternoon following the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, bitcoin was on the ascendancy. By 9:30 a.m. EST, it had not only reclaimed $76,000 but also briefly appeared to test $76,500 resistance.
However, it was not smooth sailing as the cryptocurrency dumped heavily shortly after tapping the morning session high of $76,365. By the time the sell-off eased, bitcoin had dropped to just under $75,400 before kicking off its second rally of the day. According to market data, bitcoin rallied from this point to $76,528 — an intraday high — in just under eight hours.
Though it retreated to $76,300, bitcoin’s price action meant it closed a 24-hour period with a gain of 0.7%, leaving it poised to close April with a gain of 13%. Should this happen, it would be the first time this year that the top cryptocurrency ended a month with positive gains. The April 30 recovery also saw bitcoin’s market capitalization rise to approximately $1.53 trillion.
While bitcoin closed the 24-hour period with modest gains, the reversal triggered the liquidation of $75 million in long bets on the cryptocurrency versus nearly $17 million in shorts. Overall, the crypto economy saw $266 million in leveraged long positions liquidated in 24 hours compared to $89 million in shorts.
Despite being widely expected, the Fed’s interest rate decision initially sent bitcoin into a tailspin, but only briefly. For market participants like Gracie Lin, CEO of OKX SG, bitcoin’s volatility shortly after the rate announcement shouldn’t obscure what has been an eight-week structural recovery. She cited the continuing inflows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as evidence.
“U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have pulled in roughly US$3.7 billion between late February and late April — the first sustained inflow period of 2026 after four consecutive months of outflows,” Lin said. “Meanwhile, despite macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks, bitcoin recently tested the $80,000 level. Singapore, given its strategic positioning and clear regulatory framework, is a hub of institutional activity, and the allocators we speak with here are not watching single Fed decisions — they are watching whether institutional participation is sustained.”
Meanwhile, Sergei Gorev, head of risk at Youhodler, noted that the price of bitcoin has already had two consecutive quarters of decline, something he called “extremely rare.” While every crypto winter is accompanied by a strong recovery, Gorev warned of potential headwinds.
“But we may be facing another negative quarter,” Gorev said. “Every time a new leader replaces the old one at the Federal Reserve, the price of bitcoin begins to decline. We have already seen this happen three times in a row. We are now approaching a new change in leadership at the Federal Reserve.”
He added that if bitcoin repeats the pattern of declining next week after a Fed meeting — as it has done after eight of the bank’s last nine meetings — the price could easily fall below $70,000.
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