Bitcoin pushed higher this week but headed into Thursday’s U.S. CPI inflation print with traders still treating it as a macro asset first and a crypto trade second.
According to The Block’s price page, bitcoin (BTC) traded around $72,267 after climbing 8% over the past week. Ether (ETH) similarly rose over 7.8% over the same period, with several altcoins rallying.
Spot bitcoin ETFs also drew $358 million in net inflows on April 9 as Morgan Stanley joins the fray, and ether funds added about $85 million, per Farside data.
The rebound followed a stretch of stronger long positioning in perpetual futures. Notably, BTC rose even as CME bitcoin futures activity recently slid to a 14-month low, reflecting weaker basis-trade demand from institutions.
Yet, analysts said that markets entered the latest U.S. inflation data release with traders still treating BTC as a macro asset first and a crypto trade second.
Markets still on edge
Analysts broadly agreed that the market has improved, but not enough to declare a clean break from geopolitical and rate-driven volatility.
Per QCP Capital, the week’s main lesson was that a ceasefire is not the same thing as a full reopening of risk appetite. The firm noted that crude has compressed some of its war premium, but not enough to remove inflation pressure or let markets price a smooth return to normal.
Ultimately, the analysts surmise this has kept bitcoin tied to the same macro fault lines driving bonds, currencies, and equities.
Simon Massabni, senior market analyst at XS.com, said bitcoin is sitting at a crossroads between the Strait of Hormuz and Wall Street, with geopolitical tension and institutional caution shaping the next move. He argued that the $70,500 area now matters less as a chart level than as a gauge of whether investors are willing to add risk while U.S.-Iran tensions remain unresolved.
Inflation overhang
The next catalyst could stem from the latest inflation readings.
Ahead of the release, Fabian Dori, CIO at Sygnum Bank, said March CPI is likely to show a sharp jump in headline inflation as the oil shock feeds into prices. Dori expected this could test whether the Federal Reserve can keep its patient stance intact.
Indeed, March CPI came in at 3.3% year-over-year, up from February’s 2.4%, as energy costs feed through. Though, this was slightly lower than the 3.4% estimates. Core CPI showed 2.6% year-over-year reading against expectations of 2.7%.
Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, said markets are still trading every ceasefire and war headline, but the inflation data now matters more because it offers the first real read on how the energy shock is landing in the U.S. economy.
Linh Tran of XS.com added that the dollar’s four-session slide looked more like position trimming ahead of CPI than a lasting turn lower.
The reports paint a picture of a market that has shifted from pricing war itself to pricing its inflation impact.
Generally, the consensus suggests that bitcoin remains range-bound because traders are waiting for more data to decide whether the next move is a squeeze through upper liquidity or a refill lower.
Derivatives
The options market tells a similar story. Maxime Seiler, CEO of STS Digital, said implied volatility is pricing a quieter summer than recent realized volatility would suggest.
Seiler noted that downside protection is still expensive relative to calls, while institutional call overwriting continues to cap upside enthusiasm. That leaves bitcoin with participation on the way up, but not full conviction.
QCP made much the same point. The firm said institutional flows show cautious upside rather than broad risk embrace, even as market plumbing continues to improve and ETF access expands.
If CPI cools and oil keeps easing, several analysts said bitcoin has room to grind higher on the back of renewed ETF demand. Conversely, if inflation runs hot and energy risks flare again, crypto is likely to revert to its role as a high-beta macro trade.
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